As ETH Denver Looms, Will History Repeat?

ETH Backtest

With ETH Denver on the horizon, I figured it would be good to look at the historical performance of ETH into and after these events. Obviously the sample size is very small here, so take this with a grain of salt.

We have 6 historical examples dating back to 2018.

  • In 5 of the 6 examples, ETH rallied into the starting date for the ETH Denver conference (20 days prior), ranging anywhere from a 40% rally in 2020, to a low single digit move.

  • In 5 of the 6 examples, ETH has sold off in the aftermath of ETH Denver conference (30 days after).

  • On average, ETH has sold off roughly 10% in the 30 days post ETH Denver (median of -6.9%)

Using stats like this should never be the main crux of a strategy, but it can help to inform traders of how the market typically acts with events like this defined on the calendar. Historically, we have seen these types of events (futures ETF approval, spot ETF approval, etc.) often manifest ‘sell the news’ type behaviors in the short term.

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