Over the past five years, Bitcoin has exhibited a structural shift in its macro correlation profile. Once dominated by its relationship with tech equities, particularly the Nasdaq (QQQ), BTC’s price action has increasingly tracked traditional financial institutions. This change reflects more than just market coincidence. It marks a transition in who holds BTC, why they hold it, and how it fits into institutional capital flows. As spot ETFs, macro allocators, and traditional finance desks have entered the picture, Bitcoin has begun to trade like a system asset – one that responds to liquidity, bank positioning, and monetary signals.
TLDR:
Bitcoin and bank stocks have been moving together because capital now treats them similarly. Both are seen as macro-sensitive assets that benefit from policy easing and reflation. But while the correlation may reflect market structure, the underlying fundamentals are diverging. Bitcoin is not a bank stock, but rather, it is the reserve and the rails, and that difference may become more important as the cycle turns. Read on for more.
1. From Tech Proxy to Bank Proxy: The Correlation Shift
The data bears this out. The chart below illustrates this simple transition through 90-day rolling correlations between BTC and two equity baskets: tech (QQQ) and banks (the average of JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs).
From 2020 to mid-2023, BTC maintained a consistently high correlation with QQQ, reinforcing its identity as a high-beta tech proxy. However, starting in late 2023, that relationship began to break down.
To make this clearer, here is a table of correlation values at key macro turning points:
This shift isn’t random. In fact,it reflects how macro policy and allocator behavior are now driving BTC’s price alongside financial sector equities not so much tech megacaps. This dynamic suggests that BTC is no
...