WE HAVE A DATE.
After months of anticipation, Blur tweeted out “Blur Season 2. November 20”.
While not stated explicitly, the expectations are that on November 20 Blur will announce an end to Season 2 and distribute the 300M in BLUR token incentive rewards to S2 liquidity providers/farmers.
Over the past weeks, the liquidity on Blur has been thinning out, with mostly sophisticated farmers left as liquidity providers.
A couple of things could happen:
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Blur farmers sell off their BLUR rewards to recoup their losses made from bid points farming. The top 2 Blur farmers (Hanwe & CBB) together have approximately 1/3 of the total points for S2.
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At the current price of BLUR ($0.16), there could be up to $48M in sell pressure, assuming everyone sells their rewards. In actuality, it will likely be significantly less since not everyone will sell their tokens. In our recent report, we observed that a large % of S1 airdrop recipients have not sold their airdrop.
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There are interested retail and institutional investors who are waiting for the overhang of S2 token rewards to be removed before buying in. The question on every trader’s mind is whether this is sufficient to overcome the selling from farmers.
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Some farmers might sell their BLUR and rotate the capital into NFTs. This could lead to a relief bounce for NFTs. Most of the top farmers aren’t exactly well-known for being NFT collectors. Still, the floors on many NFT collections are quite thin today, and even a relatively small capital injection can move prices significantly.
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Some farmers may sell their BLUR and rotate the capital into other farming opportunities like Friend Tech. Several of the top farmers are already active on FT and have deployed significant capital.
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Blur could drop a major announcement to tie in with the S2 ending, perhaps releasing a major new product or feature. Pacman (Blur founder) had previously teased that there are 3 major developments yet to be revealed.
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Blur will probably continue to incentivize liquidity for its marketplace and lending products — a “Season 3” of sorts
In short, there’s going to be a lot that could happen as we head towards November 20. The ending of S2 will affect not only BLUR, but could also have an effect on NFT floor prices. It’s well worth paying attention to — there will be trading opportunities.