Crypto is gearing up for another halving, but this time it’s not Bitcoin. Bittensor – branded as the “Bitcoin of Intelligence” – is approaching its first halving event, projected to occur sometime between December 2025 and February of 2026. 

Like Bitcoin, TAO has a hard-capped supply of 21 million tokens and uses scheduled halvings to control inflation; however, unlike Bitcoin, Bittensor’s incentive structure spans dozens of subnets, each with their own native token (Alpha, aka ‘α’) and liquidity dynamics. 

This complexity makes the halving’s ripple effects far more unpredictable.

The question isn’t just whether TAO’s price will react – it’s whether the entire multi-subnet ecosystem can handle the halved liquidity injections, ramping dilution (of Alpha relative to TAO), and resulting Alpha sell pressure across the board. 

The purpose of this piece is to explain the mechanics of the TAO halving as well as my predictions for how each participant in the ecosystem will be affected.

What are the Facts?

Let’s get into what we know for sure.

The halving occurs when the circulating supply crosses 10.5M TAO (exactly 50% of the total 21M cap. At the time of this writing, the network currently sits at about 9.4M TAO in circulation and Taostats’ live schedule projects the threshold will be reached on December 13, 2025. 

Since the halving is tied to circulating supply, the exact date shifts depending on the amount of TAO recycled. 

Miner/validator deregistrations, subnet-registration fees, and cold-key swaps recycle tokens back to the un-issued pool and can delay the halving. On the flipside, when these actions slow – meaning less TAO is recycled – the halving can come sooner.

Contrary to what you might’ve guessed, the TAO halvi