The Two Wolves of February

Inside February, there are two wolves.


The first half of Feb is historically bullish for risk assets like stonks. While the second half is actually the worst 2-week stretch of the year for the SPX.

Crypto exhibits similar behavior in February. The bulk of BTC and ETH’s Feb gains have come in the first half of the month. However, unlike stonks, crypto majors have historically closed Feb with a positive drift.

Delphi Scope x Christian Cioce

So far, BTC and ETH are tracking their historical seasonality performance, which — if you’re a backtest believoor — could set us up nicely over the next couple of weeks.

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BTC & ETH still tracking the 2019 analogs nicely.

You don't think 2024 will be similar to 2020 or 2016? (excluding COVID)

fair q. I'm not making predictions with this particular analysis, only looking back at which prior years the YTD performance tracks the best with 2024 so far. For BTC, limited to the first 90 days of the new year, 2016 and 2019 look very much alike, and so I'm agnostic there (though 2019 does more closely map to 2024 thus far).