Which to buy, PUPS BRC-20 or Rune Pups?

Another token near the top of the Bitcoin meme wars is PUPS.  With the recent pumping of the PUPS BRC-20 and Rune Pups floor as of late, the question is “Which to buy, PUPS BRC-20 or Rune Pups?”.

In order to answer this, we will go through 4 (of many) possible cases to help give a starting point.  While we know that Rare Rune Pups will get a higher allocation than Common Rune Pups, we do not know what it is.

High level data round PUPS: (From ~8am apr-11-2024)

Scenario 1: All Rune Pups get the same distribution

If all Rune Pups got the same distribution, each would get ~21,357 PUPS. (230,000,000 / 10,769 Rune Pups). 

In this case, the implied difference to floor for each type of Rune Pup can be calculated below. We see that buying Rare Rune Pups would be a huge loser, while buying Common Rune Pups would provide upside vs buying the BRC-20.

(Potential Upside = PUP Value – Floor Price of the related Rune Pup)

Scenario 2: Common and Rare Rune Pups split the allocation

This seems like a fair scenario. If this happened, then the PUPS distribution would be:

Scenario 3: 3-1 advantage of Rare to Common Rune Pups allocation

With the floor of Rare to Common Rune Pups around 3-1, we could look to use that as a possible allocation:

Scenario 4: Rare Rune Pups get ~93% of allocation

In this scenario, we allocate ~93% of supply to Rare Rune Pups:

Total Rune Puppets: 10,769

Rare: 777

Common: 9,992

Allocation Ratio for Rare Rune Pups: 1 – (777 / 10,769) = .928


Depending on what the distribution between Rare and Common Rune Pups ends up being, there could be massive upside in buying Rare Rune Pups vs buying PUPS BRC-20s. 

TLDR: If you believe either Scenario 2, 3 or 4 is likely, buying a Rare Rune Pup will have tremendous upside vs buying the PUPS BRC-20!


Rune Pups Ordinals

BRC-20 Pups

Note: The # of Rare and Common Rune Pups has fluctuated on Magic Eden.  As I go to post, I currently see 9996 common. Calculations are approximations only.

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Is PUPS on solana a bridged version of the BRC-20?

Assuming it is, will PUPS BRC-20 holders on solana receive the new token?

It is - its been bridged over to help allow a wider audience to participate. I believe that the token won't be airdropped, but will be a burn and claim mechanism, which would mean that folks who bought on solana will need to bridge back at some point to make the PUPS claim.

what is the difference between the PUPS BRC-20 and Rune Pups?

The term "pups" is used in a few places, so its a little confusing. After the halving, there will be a new meme token on bitcoin called PUPS. It will have a supply of 1B, and 77% of supply will go to holders of the PUPS BRC-20 and 23% of the supply will go to holders of the Rune Pups ordinals. There are 2 variations of the ordinals, which this post explores as possible outcomes of the meme PUPS distribution.