1:59 PM

Which to buy, PUPS BRC-20 or Rune Pups?

haze
haze

Another token near the top of the Bitcoin meme wars is PUPS.  With the recent pumping of the PUPS BRC-20 and Rune Pups floor as of late, the question is “Which to buy, PUPS BRC-20 or Rune Pups?”.

In order to answer this, we will go through 4 (of many) possible cases to help give a starting point.  While we know that Rare Rune Pups will get a higher allocation than Common Rune Pups, we do not know what it is.

High level data round PUPS: (From ~8am apr-11-2024)

Scenario 1: All Rune Pups get the same distribution

If all Rune Pups got the same distribution, each would get ~21,357 PUPS. (230,000,000 / 10,769 Rune Pups). 

In this case, the implied difference to floor for each type of Rune Pup can be calculated below. We see that buying Rare Rune Pups would be a huge loser, while buying Common Rune Pups would provide upside vs buying the BRC-20.

(Potential Upside = PUP Value – Floor Price of the related Rune Pup)

Scenario 2: Common and Rare Rune Pups split the allocation

This seems like a fair scenario. If this happened, then the PUPS distribution would be:

Scenario 3: 3-1 advantage of Rare to Common Rune Pups allocation

With the floor of Rare to Common Rune Pups around 3-1, we could look to use that as a possible allocation:

Scenario 4: Rare Rune Pups get ~93% of allocation

In this scenario, we allocate ~93% of supply to Rare Rune Pups:

Total Rune Puppets: 10,769

Rare: 777

Common: 9,992

Allocation Ratio for Rare Rune Pups: 1 – (777 / 10,769) = .928

Summary:

Depending on what the distribution between Rare and Common Rune Pups ends up being, there could be massive upside in buying Rare Rune Pups vs buying PUPS BRC-20s. 

TLDR: If you believe either Scenario 2, 3 or 4 is likely, buying a Rare Rune Pup will have tremendous upside vs buying the PUPS BRC-20!

Links:

Rune Pups Ordinals

BRC-20 Pups

Note: The # of Rare and Common Rune Pups has fluctuated on Magic Eden.  As I go to post, I currently see 9996 common. Calculations are approximations only.