Why Emerging Chains Will Struggle

With countless new and emerging chains coming to market imminently, I’ve been thinking a lot about how the blockchain landscape will shape up. While its inherently difficult to speculate on things given a confluence of factors, I’ve found a simple question to be helpful:

What is the actual reason that people use one chain over another?

While this question appears to be simple, it is actually quite nuanced. Counterintuitively, I’d argue it is not because one chain has better DeFi apps. Most of the low hanging DeFi primitives have or will be picked across all chains going forward. Consequently, the user experience will be relatively indistinguishable. HyperEVM, Berachain, Monad, and MegaETH will all launch with a handful of spot DEXs, perps DEXs, lend/borrow apps and LSTs. While one breakout app can certainly result in some power-law in activity distribution, I struggle to name one truly differentiated

...
Leave your comment...

Very good point.Ppl use one chain over others simply because that one is profitable IMO.
I personally spent lots of time chasing for yield recently, not for trading tokens, though it consists most of on chain activities.

New chains won't work because they raised too much money and come to market at too high of a valuation. Because of this, no actual users are able to benefit. Ethereum, Solana, and now HL work because they made early users wealthy, who in turn provided TVL and were evangelists for the chain/dapps. It's that simple.

To say Ethereum, Solana and HL succeed simply because they made early users wealthy feels reductive imo. Many such cases of projects doing large airdrops who don’t have much TVL to show for it today.

For HL it definitely helped but I’d also they just built a superior product people actually want to use. Perps listings also aren’t tethered to the native tokens issued on that chain given their synthetic nature. This has allowed HL to trump the dynamic explained in the post.

Solana also hadn’t really broken out until the past couple years which has nothing to do with airdropping money to users. Seems to be more of a function of underpinning the meme complex

Fascinating thoughts!