Pulse Check on Liquidity Trends

Pulse Check

In early February, we wrote about the turnaround in the global liquidity cycle and its influence on the market’s strong start to the year.

Specifically, we noted the following:

• “The global liquidity cycle showed signs of bottoming back in Q4, which coincided with the October lows. Recent increases in global liquidity have been a driving factor in this year’s market rally.”
• At the time, we noted this was “largely driven by China’s PBoC and, to a lesser extent, the Fed” and that this trend “could continue through the better part of Q1 as the US debt ceiling debacle forces the TGA to be drawn down.”
• Our work suggested the “risk is to the upside in the short-term” and that the “current rally could extend deeper into Q1.”
• We did, however, note there were “still multiple headwinds that could drag on markets as we move closer to late Q1/Q2.”
• Despite this, our longer-term outlook remained clear, as “the need for liquidity expansion will become more pressing as the year progresses.”

Since then, the broad crypto market is up ~14%, largely driven by BTC and ETH, which have gained 25% and 15%, respectively. Bitcoin’s outperf