There is a lot of hype around Lighter right now as their points continue to trade OTC. Just a few weeks ago someone bought $363k worth of Lighter points at $33 per point, which was the talk of CT for almost an entire day as many thought this was an expensive buy.

Fast forward to today, points are selling as high as $80/pt. At today’s supply (8,390,137 points), $80/pt implies ~$2.7B FDV if TGE were today; if TGE is 8–12 weeks out, the same price implies ~$3.3–$3.6B.

I think the question isn’t “Is $80/point crazy?”, it’s what has to be true in ~3 months for $80 to be fair?

You need (1) volume to be less mercenary than skeptics believe, (2) continued product differentiation, (3) and distribution needs to extend bey