Azuki's Follow the Rabbit: What could happen?


Follow the Rabbit is Azuki’s first major IRL experience this year. It’s happening this Friday at 10pm PT. That’s just about 13 hours from now

Aside from the partying, everyone is expecting Azuki to drop at least one major announcement during this event. What could this be? Let me do some speculating:

Possibility #1: Azuki drops a token, similar to $APE.

I think this is unlikely, given the regulatory uncertainty around tokens these weeks. Token launches are most effective in bull markets, when there are many interested participants. It lets more people enter the community. Now’s not the right time IMO.

Possibility #2: Azuki drops a new NFT collection.

This is quite possible. Azuki hasa history of doing so at live events — Beanz was airdropped to Azuki holders as a surprise during their Garden party IRL event From what I’ve seen, this is the community’s baseline expectation.

Possibility #3: Azuki announces a major roadmap item

A new game? A anime series? TV show? Azuki hasn’t indicated a clear future direction yet. The team could take this opportunity to do so

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In any case, it’s clear that people are positioning for something major to happen. Azuki & Beanz top the list of active loans on Blend, with 690 & 565 loans respectively.

There is a reasonable likelihood is that “Follow the Rabbit” could be a sell-the-news event.

Point 1. Significant leverage in the system. There are 696 active Azuki loans on Blend = ~$15M+ of leverage.

92 of these loans are now on auction and it feels like lenders are pulling back liquidity in anticipation of price volatility.

Point 2. Catch-22 situation with airdrop

If an airdrop happens: Most collections tend to drop in floor prices after an airdrop. See what happened to BAYC after the Otherdeed launch, or MAYC after sewer passes for example.

This is because there is no limit to anticipation, but once it becomes reality a price ceiling is set.

If an airdrop isn’t announced during the event: there will be some disappointment among those who were expecting one.

Point 3. NFT markets are weak. Few organic buyers all around.

But whatever happens to the price, one thing’s for certain: Everyone at Vegas this weekend is going to have a dope time. Azuki’s track record of hosting mindblowing parties is unblemished.

(None of this is financial advice. I am an Azuki holder)

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