The Tower’s Still Standing. But for How Long?

You ever play Jenga with that one friend … the fearless one? The one who keeps pulling blocks from the bottom, stacking them higher, laughing every time the tower wobbles while everyone else watches **holding their breath** waiting for it all to collapse?

But sometimes … the tower just doesn’t want to fall.

Sometimes it just stands there shaking, creaking, impossibly holding and while everyone’s bracing for disaster it keeps going.

Higher.

More unstable.

More ridiculous.

Until it finally tips, not down, but up.

👉 TLDR: Hope Metric is STILL pointing towards continuation to the upside for BTC. Everyday BTC holds these levels without sentiment chasing, the setup only tightens. My view is that this consolidation resolves higher and forces sentiment to catch up, driving an emotional move. Read on for more.

The Tower’s Still Standing…

Nine Red Xs. BTC at $96K. Hope Metric stuck at 52.2.

Emotional misalignment deepening, and no decision on direction yet. The tower’s still standing… and maybe that’s the most dangerous thing of all.

In my last post, “When Sentiment Says Go but Price Says Wait,” BTC was trading around $93K. At the time, the Hope Metric signaled emotional dislocation; leaning towards continuation. Since then, BTC’s climbed to $96.6K, but the divergence hasn’t closed. If anything, the model’s screaming even louder.

We’re now 9 Red Xs deep since April 27 with each Red X = pulling another emotional Jenga block out from under this price action.

Every R² collapse shouting the same thing: “Sentiment still refuses to believe.”

And yet … BTC holds. FOMC came and went.

No rate cut.

No pivot.

No major price reaction.

We keep waiting for the tower to fall, but every day it holds the more precarious it gets.

Here’s What I’m Seeing

1. BTC held post-FOMC but sentiment hasn’t realigned

Hope Metric still stuck around 52.

R² still printing a read below 0.3 (0.12 → another Red X).

Sentiment refuses to chase despite no policy shift or price breakdown.

2. The divergence isn’t fading but becoming embedded (for now)

9 Red Xs in a row = this isn’t a fleeting misalignment but it’s sentiment stubbornly refusing to chase.

Price is floating higher on disbelief but no emotional participation yet … a setup that can’t stay underexposed forever.

3. The longer we stay here, the sharper sentiment needs to catch up

Every day sentiment lags → the “gap” between emotional positioning and price widens.

This isn’t a tower stabilizing it’s a tower hollowing out sentimentally.

And when alignment finally happens it won’t drift it will rush.

Why does this divergence hints to the upside?

Right now the Hope Metric is clearly lagging price with R² repeatedly collapsing signaling emotional misalignment.

There are two theoretical ways to close that gap:

Price declines to meet low sentiment (bearish alignment)
Sentiment rises to meet price (bullish alignment)

Normally, both are possible. But context matters:

In this current setup:

🟢 BTC price keeps holding higher despite divergence.
🟢 Every divergence signal (9 Red Xs in a row) hasn’t led to price weakness. Instead, BTC continues to climb from $93K to $96.6K.
🟢 Hope Metric isn’t collapsing but it’s flatlining around 52 (neutral territory)
🟢 External macro shocks aren’t really dragging price lower.

This behavior suggests price is leading sentiment, not vice versa. And when price leads sentiment for multiple divergence signals … it signals latent demand, underexposure, disbelief.

In other words, sentiment hasn’t “bought in.” And as long as price holds, sentiment will eventually be forced to capitulate by emotionally chasing the move upward and restoring alignment via a sentiment surge.

HM Heatmap: Still Stuck in Divergence

Today’s heatmap tells the same story: we’re sitting right in the middle of the divergence pocket with BTC around $96K, Hope Metric at 52 parked squarely in the green zone (R² ≤ 0.3).

Even after FOMC, price and sentiment remain emotionally misaligned. And according to the model, that gap doesn’t close on its own. It needs a decisive move to snap things back into alignment. Either BTC breaks lower… or sentiment finally surges to catch up. For the re-alignment, the breakout condition is clear: we’d need to see R² close back above 0.3, with follow-through the next day. That’s the model’s signal that sentiment’s finally starting to chase.

Until then … we’re stuck inside this hollow tower.

…But for How Long?

BTC held through FOMC, no breakdown, no sentiment alignment (yet), no reset. Price is currently leading sentiment. Every divergence signal hasn’t pulled price lower but it’s exposing latent demand still waiting on the sidelines.

My bias currently remains tilted toward an upside resolution as price keeps holding above key levels while sentiment hasn’t caught up.

Upside targets: $98.5K – $102K short-term if sentiment starts chasing (R² closes above 0.3 with follow-through).
Invalidation: breakdown below $94K; signals divergence resolving lower, sentiment dragging price down.

The tower’s still not falling down.

It’s still standing.

And maybe that’s the most dangerous thing of all – not because it’s going to collapse, but because price is trying to force sentiment to chase higher the longer it stands.

GL

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