US 2yr Treasury yields have fallen another ~25bps this week, marking one of their sharpest 20-day drawdowns on record. The last time we saw a move like this was mid-March 2020, and before that you’d have to go back to 2008.

On a percentage basis, this move doesn’t look as dramatic given where 2yr yields were a month ago. But we’ve been watching this trend closely as the bond market seems to be calling the Fed’s bluff.

This is an updated chart from a previous post on this topic.