Can BLUR's Valuation Be Justified?

With a $2.7B FDV at the time of writing, and referencing from the tweet, the author rightly points out Blur’s run-rate volume is currently unclear given airdrop incentives are distorting the actual volume that we can expect from non-incentivized activity. With the launch of Season 2, we might continue to see incentivized usage on Blur -> incentive-based volume market share dominance. Blur will likely enjoy its elevated volume for now as traders and speculators capitalize on this opportunity, but the important thing is how volume will play out during the next few years as incentives slowly dry out.

As of today, Blur has found the right PMF, and its continued dominance will likely persist. As rightly pointed out by the author, new entrants will continue to try to take Blur’s piece of the pie, just as Blur did to OpenSea. One more caveat is Blur’s 0% marketplace fees. Blur is not a charity, and eventually needs to increase their marketplace fees to start generating revenue. NFT marketplaces are getting more crowded as the days go by, and the eventual winner is likely the one that dominates with the deepest liquidity and industry-leading UI/UX that keeps their user base sticky.

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