The market has been fantastic lately. YTD, the total crypto market cap is up almost 100% – from $765B to $1.4T. You have done well for yourself if you stuck around during the bear market. Retail is still not here en masse, meaning there is still the potential for significant capital inflows. We most likely have a BTC ETF coming, and we have just resolved some of the largest FUD in the market (Binance). All in all, it looks like we are poised for a legendary bull market to take off immediately and draw in sidelined capital as they FOMO back in. But when everything looks great, I get most worried.

Crypto markets have this annoying habit of pulling the rug out from under us when we are most confident. As such, one of my heuristics when looking at the market is how much bull posting I see on Twitter. Bull posting is fine when it comes with research and a solid thesis to underpin the position. But bull posting begins to concern me when I see large accounts make price predictions without any sort of thesis and underpinning research. To me, bull posting like the latter signals an exuberant market. An exuberant market that could get hammered as people add leverage to get more exposure. I still remember when large accounts called for $250K BTC when BTC was at $69K based on nothing other than belief, and then it all fell apart.

A few bull posts on the timeline are fine and often appreciated. But I get worried when my feeds get full of unbacked price predictions. Unfortunately, when I checked my feed this morning, I saw many exuberant bull posts. Of course, some random bull posts don’t drive price action, but when I see many accounts start to all tweet the same stuff, I usually find some short-term caution warranted. The market seems to enjoy humbling us before we move higher by moving in the direction of maximum pain, which seems like it could be to the downside.