Delphi Roundup | August 11th

Recent Research

📊 Ghosts of Cycles Past – The Early Innings of a New Cycle? – 8/11

  • This month, we’re embarking on a deeper exploration of why we believe that we’re in the early stages of a new cycle and a few high-conviction ideas to capitalize on the opportunities we believe lie ahead.
  • Despite all the parabolic charts, crypto markets are remarkably cyclical in nature. These cycles typically last about 4 years and they are surprisingly consistent.
  • In each of the last two major price cycles, it took almost exactly two years for BTC’s price to fully recover to prior cycle highs and three years all in all for price to go from its cycle bottom to a new cycle top.
  • We’re now ~9 months past the cycle bottom back in November, which would put us ~15 months out from a recovery to the previous cycle high (Q4 2024).

📊 Bull v Bear – Dog Days of DeFi Summer – 8/9

  • Dive into a riveting episode as we navigate the “Dog Days of DeFi Summer,” spotlighting Uniswap’s trends and Unibot’s promising profit-sharing approach. Join our heated debate on Solana’s trajectory, the pivotal role of stablecoins in DeFi liquidity, and the potential interplay of GBTC/ETHE and MSTR.

📊 Check the Chain – Beyond Curve: DeFi’s Future – 8/4

  • In this pivotal Check the Chain episode, Jordan navigates the fallout from Curve’s hack, transforming the chaos of founder Michael Egorov’s precarious debt positions into profound insights about DeFi’s evolution. Delve into the dynamics of Velodrome and Arrakis’ rivalry, envision Maverick’s potential dominance, and anticipate the upcoming Arrakis token launch. It’s a balanced blend of immediate turbulence and a forward gaze into the maturing landscape of DeFi; it’s no longer about just surviving the storm, it’s about building a stronger, smarter future.

Relevant Reminder

📌 Reflecting on EthCC – 8/3

  • Paris was highlighted by EthCC and the Modular Summit, with other infra-focused side events during the week.
  • Common themes throughout were MEV, account abstraction (ERC-4337), intents, zk (both for privacy and scaling), rollups, and shared sequencers.
  • In this report, we’re not going to dive specifically into those concepts, but instead touch on projects that take advantage of them.
  • Some of these open up new capabilities for applications, like Circle’s CCTP. Others are more of a mix of DeFi and infra, with Aori and UniswapX highlighting a growing trend toward more “intent-centric” applications.
  • Lastly, we go over the “Endgame” debate between Vitalik (Ethereum), Anatoly (Solana), and Mustafa (Celestia).
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