Across Bitcoin’s history, November has consistently behaved as a structural pivot month and the timing of its monthly low often reveals the underlying market regime.
Between 2020 and 2024, the distribution of November lows shows a clear bifurcation: in bullish markets Bitcoin bottomed within the 1st week of the month, while in bear or transitional phases like 2021 through 2022, the low arrived much later, typically at the months end. This distinction reflects sentiment and positioning – early lows tend to occur during controlled volatility resets inside broader uptrends, whereas late lows often coincide with liquidity stress or forced deleveraging in downtrends.
How Deep Do November Pullbacks Go?
The drawdown data reinforces this cyclical contrast. Over the past five years, Bitcoin’s average November decline from t
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