ETH ETF Pessimism

The more we hear from the ETF experts, the more it seems like an ETH ETF in May is far from a lock, and actually less than 50/50. Of course, 35% is still a 1/3 chance, but it doesn’t seem like the sure lock the BTC ETF was given where the conversations with issuers were at this point in the process.

If it’s delayed is it bullish or bearish? You can kind of argue both sides. The bull side is that it further extends out an inevitable catalyst and keeps the market something to look forward to. This is basically the BTC price action from October of last year when it seemed inevitable up until launch. The bear case is that a lot of money has already positioned for the ETH (ETHBTC up ~12% since BTC approval, ETHE discount to single digits) and that money gets unwound to either sit in cash or deploy to alternative assets (L1s, AI trade, hot narrative of the week, etc.)

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Thoughts on Sassal's (The Daily Gwei) take on the SEC being "trapped" into approving based on (1) approving the perp ETF in oct last year, and (2) risk of being sued and judged against based on precedence from BTC ETF lawsuits?

honestly i just outsource my entire thinking on this to the etf experts, there is no point in me wasting another minute on other theories, especially from eth maxis. the etf guys consider every angle when they come up with that 35%.

Thanks ser!