One of the more interesting macro developments right now is the relationship between gold and Japan’s 10-year yield. These two assets are moving in tandem, which is not how a clean tightening cycle normally behaves. Below, I’ll explain why gold is tracking Japanese yields, why Japan is the pressure point and what this setup implies for Bitcoin if the BOJ steps in. Let’s dive in.
Gold and Japan Are Moving Together… BTC? The opposite
In a standard environment, rising long-end yields pressure gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. That relationship breaks only when yields stop signaling healthy normalization and start signaling policy stress. JP10Y is basically mooning and Gold is confirming the move alongside it.
The first correlation pane makes this shift clear.
The 30-day correlation between JP10Y and gold, shown in blue remains volatile but has increasingly spent time above zero rather than snapping negative. That alone suggests the usual inverse relationship is weakening.
More importantly, the 90-day correlation in red has followed it higher, indicating this is not just short-term noise. The most telling signal comes from the 1-year correlation in green, which has trended steadily upward and now sits firmly in positive territory.
When the long-term correlation turns positive and stays elevated, it signals
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