Summary

• The cyclical macro outlook is still “risk-on”. Our US growth leading indicator continues to trend higher and more than half of global growth leading inputs we track are now improving QoQ. Inflation leading indicators are also rolling over. 

• The main macro headwind remains the lagged impact from tightening monetary policy + further hawkish repricing, with the consensus reaction to the July Fed meeting that Warsh will be pressured into a September hike. We would fade this. 

• We added