In the past, the LTC/BTC and LTC/USD pairs have typically bottomed out before Litecoin’s halving events. During the previous two halvings, the LTC/BTC pair reached its lowest points in May and December, with the halving itself occurring around the first week of August. In these instances, Litecoin experienced rallies of approximately 500% and 180% leading up to the halving. Comparatively, the LTC/USD pair bottomed out in April and December, with rallies of around 800% and 550% preceding the last two halvings.
At present, Litecoin has seen a roughly 190% rally against BTC and a 160% rally against the USD. This creates a conundrum: while the LTC/BTC pair may have already factored in the halving, the LTC/USD pair might not have. However, it’s hard to conclude that the halving is completely accounted for, considering that Ethereum’s merge – arguably one of its most significant events – was only being priced in about two months prior. Moreover, Ethereum is a larger asset with a broader front-run scope.
Whether the halving is priced in or not is something only time will tell, but in the event that it isn’t, it probably starts getting priced-in in the next two months.