TLDR
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Hope Metric Score: 54.6 (Neutral Regime)
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Monetary Outlook: Dovish tone supports July cuts
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Macro: Risk-on across equities, yields stable, inflation easing
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Geopolitics: Middle East tensions persist but market impact muted
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BTC Flows: Strategy and Metaplanet continue buying
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Policy: Genius Stablecoin bill passing Senate vote / MiCA + US reforms create regulatory clarity tailwind
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Outlook: Bias remains constructive; strong flows and dovish Fed tone are in place, but a breakout likely needs clearer geopolitical resolution to ignite follow-through.
The Round Up
Markets are kicking off the week with improving macro tailwinds and a clear risk-on tone. Fed officials are now openly signaling support for a July rate cut, triggering rallies across equities and a further drop in short-term yields. PMI prints held steady, inflation expectations continued to ease, and the VIX remains suppressed all supporting a more confident risk environment.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran remain in the headlines, but the market reaction has been notably muted. Oil prices have declined, equities have climbed, and volatility measures have compressed signaling that allocators are discounting any immediate escalation. In short, fears of a broader conflict are not showing up in the tape.
On the crypto side, BTC ETF inflows came in strong again at $1.02B, marking the second straight week above the $1B threshold. While ETH ETF demand cooled to +$21.4M from last week’s massive $528M, flows remained positive, and the multi-asset trend is intact. Meanwhile, treas
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