The Fed is expected to deliver its first rate cut of the cycle in September, and BTC’s history around cuts is mixed. In 2019 the market front-ran easier policy, then faded once the cut arrived. In 2024 the opposite occurred, with Trump’s campaign, ETF inflows and corporate balance sheet demand extending the rally.
September 2025 now sits between these two regimes. ETF flows are slowing, the Saylor bid is weaker and price has pulled back since hitting ATH of 124k. The path into the meeting will determine whether this cut looks like 2019’s sell-the-news or something different. Read on for more.