Introducing the Hope Metric (HM) – a real-time sentiment framework I’ve been building to track the emotional regime behind crypto markets, with a focus on Bitcoin.
What started as a personal research project to better understand when sentiment and price diverge has evolved into a structured tool for identifying mispricings and narrative inflections.
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Can you please provided a more detailed explanation of the relationships of the variables in the chart?
Great question - I’ll be diving deeper into how these components relate in the upcoming breakdown, but here’s a high-level explanation for now:
HM Score reflects a composite view of sentiment, scored from 0 to 100. It aggregates macro, institutional, policy, and crypto-native inputs into a single reading that captures how the market is positioned emotionally.
BTC Price is plotted alongside to show how market price action is reacting to (or ignoring) changes in sentiment.
R² line shows the 7-day rolling correlation between the HM Score and BTC price. When R² is high (closer to 1), sentiment and price are moving in sync. When it drops (especially below 0.3), it signals a potential divergence - either price is moving without sentiment backing it, or sentiment is shifting before price.
The core idea is to catch breakdowns in this alignment.
For example: when sentiment improves (rising HM) but R² is falling and price lags - that often flags a market mispricing or early-stage inflection. More to come soon in the full deep dive. Appreciate you engaging with it.