The Circle IPO: Caveat Emptor?

One of crypto’s most revered companies, Circle, has finally filed its S1 prospectus with the SEC ahead of a much anticipated IPO. Crypto stocks have become a clean way for people outside the industry to express a view on the industry’s growth story. Coinbase, in particular, was a pivotal IPO that brought a lot of credence and positive attention to the industry.

Circle is next up, and sits at the heart of the most fundamentally-sound and forward-looking narrative arc in crypto: stablecoins. The Circle story is really easy to grasp. A top two stablecoin, consistent growth in supply, con

...

Great post — a couple thoughts:

Curious how you’re thinking about the potential cannibalization from tokenized T-bills. As onchain RWAs mature, feels inevitable that more users will opt to capture the yield directly rather than holding USDC. Even if it's not Circle’s whole business, it's a growing structural headwind.

Also wondering how much of Circle’s edge is really tied to regulatory positioning. Their moat feels increasingly reliant on favorable U.S. policy around stablecoins — especially the distinction between yield-bearing vs. payment-focused models. With someone like Lutnick (Cantor Fitzgerald/Tether) in Trump’s cabinet, feel like that is definitetly something to monitor.

And yeah, can’t ignore the fact that Coinbase basically marked the top last cycle. Wonder if we’re about to see history rhyme.