Introduction
BTC/Gold remains in a corrective phase, but for now my base case is that this is a typical pullback rather than the start of a new bear market. A local bottom could form sooner, with the next 9/21 EMA cross-up likely confirming a new leg higher between late November and late December.
The BTC/Gold ratio has long served as a reliable gauge of macro risk appetite and liquidity cycles. When Bitcoin strengthens relative to Gold, it often reflects improving market sentiment and rising liquidity conditions across crypto risk assets.
One simple trend framework that has consistently mapped these shifts is the 1-week 9/21 EMA cross strategy:
- When the 1W 21 EMA crosses above the 9 EMA, BTC tends to enter a sustained downside phase relative to Gold.
- When the 1W 9 EMA crosses back above the 21 EMA, it signals the start of a sustained upside cycle.
The Data
Across BTC/Gold’s historical record, there have been 8 downside crosses.
The largest drawdown following such crosses reached roughly –68%, while the smallest (and briefest) decline was aroun
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