Which Happens First?

Yesterday we had a bit of a spirited debate internally about where we are in the market cycle, whether BTC would continue outperforming, and if/when a classic “alt season” setup would appear.

There were plenty of strong arguments for and against overweighting BTC right now, but many responses boiled down to everyone’s individual time horizons (as is often the case during these types of debates).

Most people would tend to agree that over a 2-3 time horizon, plenty of crypto assets have the potential to outperform megacaps like BTC. But when it comes to timing, the consensus isn’t nearly as strong.

I tried to pose a question that would remove this moving target, focusing instead on more binary events. You may be strong in your conviction that SOL will outperform BTC during the next bull market, but do you think it’ll see a 4x return before BTC doubles?

The debate around this question of “what happens first?” yielded some interesting answers, so I tweeted out a poll to gauge where others stand on this — and the results were telling.

Only 23% voted for the extreme bear scenario, but ~44% believe BTC will double first. No poll is perfect, but that tells me many people are either in the cautiously optimistic camp or they think BTC has the clearest – or cleanest – narrative going for it right now (especially in this muddied regulatory environment).

Maybe it’s neither of those. Or maybe if I’d added in a handful of smaller names the results would’ve been different. But at the very least, it’s an interesting thought exercise that’s guaranteed to spark a good debate.

So, where do you stand?

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