ceteris

ceteris

@ceteris

Delphi Digital

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infra focused research

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"Ledger/Trezor"

i don't know if one is "best", they have tradeoffs. ledger is closed source while trezor is open source. those are the clear two leaders imo. ledger has better functionality.

they also have a longer period of time being on the market, something that makes the newer hardware wallets a bit riskier imo.

there’s not really a single focus. would say there’s good energy around defi and a lot of people expecting momentum to keep up along with token launches. drip is doing an all day thing today, they’ve integrated solana pay into the vending machines which is cool. just tap your bracelet and have a usdc payment on-chain. went to a firedancer talk with kevin bowers yesterday, ngl a lot was over my head but these guys are truly the gigabrains of the industry imo.

i don't believe in the fear & greed index at all. it was at basically 0 for the entirety of the end of 2021 through all of 2022 and we just went straight down the whole time

sui has some cool stuff, they launched zkLogin the other day. Will be harder to create die-hard community with token imo but I do think there's some stuff there worth paying attention to.

yeah so this is everyone's q. the cop-out answer is that everyone shares in the pie. eth maintains monetary adoption vs other assets, celestia gets demand for their da and solana expands their developer eco and tooling. we should keep in mind though that this rollup won't have as much throughput or capacity as solana l1 so for teams that need max performance they will stay there. there are also many solana teams that are aligned with the solana vision. eclipse will therefore, imo, need to convince new and/or ethereum developers to try out the svm. if this rollup is successful, then you will have essentially onboarded new developers to svm that may have not been previously, along with more resources directed towards svm tooling. teams can even test out svm on eclipse and then migrate to solana l1 if finding success. so, value accrues everywhere kind of if this is successful.

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"How would Coinbase and [insert L2] partner? Well, one obvious idea would be for Coinbase to run one of their sequencers."

  1. sequence other op stack chains
  2. launch base token
  3. ???
  4. profit
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"While the current iteration caps groups to 150-200 holders, some creators may want to reach a wider audience, and some less"

there's definitely merit to the limits of chats, it's just something that will cause some creators not to join. i think ft just limits its potential universe of users if it's strictly a paid group chat, but you can argue the tradeoff is worth it.

the biggest thing that really needs to be adjusted imo is just around the exit strategy (which a flatter curve also makes less painful for all).

i don't think so. as some rough math, atom gets 15% of stride lst rewards which has a current run-rate of ~$100k/yr that should continue to scale up (although a large portion of this is just recycling atom inflation back to the hub). neutron is recently launched so not much income in the form of gas fees + mev yet.

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"h UniswapX."

yeah, they're left in a tough spot. i agree w/your points. a filler could use usdd/cctp & cex's in back-end to complete a cross-chain bridge transfer. bridge lp sustainability is also tough b/c fees aren't enough to make the risk of being a bridge lp worth it, you have to issue tokens. a few fillers could kind of dominate bridging, keeping assets siloed on each chain and just use cctp to rebalance when needed.

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"Going forward, we believe Solana is sitting on three major catalysts – points, liquid staking, and cNFTs"

points is kind of ongoing now with marginfi. cypher was doing it too before they unfortunately had an exploit. for lsts, marginfi points have been a big boost to minting those plus superstake (leveraged lst on drift) and meteora lst pools. cNFTs have mostly been used by drip so far but tensor just did their mint using them and have been hinting at some cool experimenting with them. so, there's not really an "eta", they're happening right now. i want to see some of the payments/social/messaging apps take off b/c that's truly a unique area where solana can excel.

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"as we’ve noted in previous reports – as evidence that we’ve been nearing a turning point piles up."

what do you think is the biggest risk to the 4-yr cycle not lining up this time?

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"which means that the basic Uniswap routing algorithm will not take advantage of all of the v4 pools."

i don't think they want it fragmented but was kind of just an unfortunate byproduct of hooks. uniswapx is kind of like letting the free market develop routing.

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"The L2 will host what is a user’s “spending account,” a fast, gasless app-rollup that will facilitate payments and money transfers through various rails."

i believe the money needs to just sit there in the l2 "spending account". there's probably a way to claim yield on the l1 savings account though and automatically send to the l2. don't think this is live yet but seems like a reasonable thing to implement.

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"The shift to an RFQ model will basically turn LPs of liquid AMMs into “toxic exhaust” for the fillers."

yeah, i think lps will either stop or shift to move mev-aware designs. for example, something like skip's protocol owned builder which auctions off top of block can capture and redistribute a lot of cefi-defi stat arb. a bit trickier to do in ethereum b/c you don't control consensus as an app but we'll see more design here. for long-tail i think amm will always have this market. amms are great for long tail.

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"However, it’s meaningfully slower than most protocol bridges."

yeah, you don't need the challenge window to pass with cctp. cctp takes ~20 mins but there's no slippage as it's burn/mint. if you absolutely need funds as fast as possible then some protocol bridges are still faster.

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