team tried to be cute with "bera". should just be called bearchain so no confusion
@that1618guy
Delphi Digital
ABOUT
Former management consultant turned trader/investor. Marcus is interested in the intersection of macroeconomics, technical analysis, and sentiment in crypto markets. Today, his core focus is on identifying market inefficiencies and leveraging insights to anticipate major market transitions.
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team tried to be cute with "bera". should just be called bearchain so no confusion
Just finished reading this - really liked your “Token Identity Crisis” framing. Totally agree that so many crypto tokens are stuck pretending to be equity or currency without actually committing to either structurally.
Made me think of something similar I felt back during the NFT boom. I always had an issue with how projects like Azuki (and a lot of NFT brands) set up incentives. Buyers were basically betting on the founder’s ability to grow the brand, but had no actual equity, no share of merch or licensing revenue, no enforceable claim to any of the upside ... and then a token drop that flops.
Aren't governance tokens to a lesser degree "financialized NFTs"? Both seem to give you a stake in something bigger, but without the enforceable rights of real ownership (whether in equity, revenue, or control).
Curious how you see the alignment challenge playing out. Are these tokenization protocols actually solving it, or just the first step toward something more structurally aligned?
thanks for taking the time to read this. happy to answer questions if any
Thanks Blueshi appreciate your comment.
Right now I’m sharing the Hope Metric here on Delphi - daily scores, setups, and breakdowns. It’s something I’ve been building personally and refining over time, so it’s not publicly available yet (soon hopefully)
Compared to Fear & Greed Index, HM blends much more macro signals, flows, policy risk, and crypto-native stuff to get a better read on how the market’s really positioned. TheTLDR is I take in more unique metrics that measures "hope" and found it much more tactical from a trading perspective.
for e.g. the HM takes into consideration Geo-politics as one of our core signals to measure how hopeful folks are in terms of BTC capital flow. This will include stuff like Russia-Ukraine peace deals, China-Taiwan escalations etc, stuff that will have a material impact on global trade which will then impact BTC capital flow.
No prob, you can find it here: https://www.tradingview.com/script/lG8KoR4f-Global-Liquidity-Index/
You can add this indictator directly to your TradingView chart.
TLDR: I find TOTAL3 more useful to better track rotation and sentiment in the rest of the market.
TOTAL includes everything (BTC, ETH, alts), and TOTAL2 excludes BTC but still includes ETH, which behaves more like a macro asset now (highly correlated to BTC and ETFs, not always reflective of the altcoin cycle)
TOTAL3 gives a cleaner read on altcoin-specific sentiment and structure, especially for identifying rotation setups (removes the BTC/ETH weight and focuses on what the rest of the market is doing beneath the surface)
Great question - I’ll be diving deeper into how these components relate in the upcoming breakdown, but here’s a high-level explanation for now:
HM Score reflects a composite view of sentiment, scored from 0 to 100. It aggregates macro, institutional, policy, and crypto-native inputs into a single reading that captures how the market is positioned emotionally.
BTC Price is plotted alongside to show how market price action is reacting to (or ignoring) changes in sentiment.
R² line shows the 7-day rolling correlation between the HM Score and BTC price. When R² is high (closer to 1), sentiment and price are moving in sync. When it drops (especially below 0.3), it signals a potential divergence - either price is moving without sentiment backing it, or sentiment is shifting before price.
The core idea is to catch breakdowns in this alignment.
For example: when sentiment improves (rising HM) but R² is falling and price lags - that often flags a market mispricing or early-stage inflection. More to come soon in the full deep dive. Appreciate you engaging with it.