PONS and FWA

Not directly, but it’s setting the stage. Ending QT + recycling MBS into T-bills stops the reserve drain and boosts liquidity at the short end.

Imo not the start of a new liquidity wave but hinting at the setup. Basically QE-compatible positioning vs QE itself.

thank you for this my perps quant

noice

Stablecoins def helped with demand for treasuries but not in a huge way as of now. In my TGa report i touched on this - by 2028 the USG expects stablecoins to soak up to $1 trillion worth of USTs; up from 120B this year.

So yeah traction is gaining and only expected to keep growing. As of now, foreign buyers / local markets still remains the largest buyers of short term USTs. If you’d like to know more you can give the TGA report a read; might find some of the liquidity metrics helpful.

Sounds like a DAT for fartcoin 🤣

yeah US treasury bought alot of their own debt + strong demand for ST treasuries and we got thru this without much hiccup. now we will have another tailwind in 2026 when we start drawing down the TGA... bullish catalyst

Hi Henry, for the FED RRP it’s the outflows out of the account that influences the flow of capital to risk assets / equities. The inflow into the RRP is the opposite - capital is withdrawn across funds etc. and deposited into the RRP, which coincides with the sell off you see in the charts.

My view is that BTC is still seen largely as a risk asset, with some properties of a hedge against bank failures, currency debasement etc. (digital gold narrative) which is what makes it so unique. It’s both a risk asset and a store of value. In the long run, I think BTC will behave more like digital gold, but until then it’s still highly correlated to the Nasdaq / SnP.

Hope this helps!

these charts look amazing. thanks Jason - will be forwarding this to folks i know would love to see this

You're spot on. I see the cross less as proof of capital rotating between BTC and gold and more as a "timing gauge".

Gold tends to react first when stress builds, BTC usually lags and then overshoots once liquidity or risk appetite returns. The BTC/Gold ratio and especially the 1W 9/21 cross helps flag when that handoff might be happening.

There are many ways to interpret the BTC vs Gold chart, but for me i use the 1W 9/21ema crosses to identify trend strength and estimate gains based on historical moves we have seen since 2020. So this is more of a pattern vs a "framework" 

The invalidation for the above is if the cross down actually sticks. In 2023 the cross down was quickly reversed and that reversal kicked off the rally. If this time BTC/Gold trends lower after the cross and holds under 30 while gold pushes higher then the setup is broken. There is also a time element. If BTC/Gold just drifts sideways for months without any upside reaction, the pattern loses its relevance as a signal.

Hope this helps

ty ser, very helpful

The 12w offset has been stronger historically since liquidity takes time to filter thru markets before hitting BTC

but the 6w looks cleaner rn since ETFs, derivatives + tighter macro links are pulling BTC into faster sync with liquidity

August 5th

ty ser, v timely

Yes the TGA aims to be completed by end sept, so the later the tga refill starts to steeper the drain per week to achieve their goal. the refill could technically begin at any moment, even next week. will have to monitor the TGA reserves to see. as of this week i checked and the refill has not begun yet

it could start anytime from now actually, doesn't have to start only after FOMC. i used FOMC as an example of a potential sell the news event, but realistically the TGA refill could start even tomorrow

and yes you're right, they have to complete it by end of September and they have not started it yet

thx for this, very timely

plot twist - theyre both DOGE

thx for the timely summary. curious to explore what are the potential implications for $EMP as Talos infra is built on top of it.