Introducing the Hope Metric (HM) – a real-time sentiment framework I’ve been building to track the emotional regime behind crypto markets, with a focus on Bitcoin.
What started as a personal research project to better understand when sentiment and price diverge has evolved into a structured tool for identifying mispricings and narrative inflections.
...Thanks. the metrics are very Intersting.
Where can we find the HM?
What are the differences between HM and crypto fear & greed index?
Thanks Blueshi appreciate your comment.
Right now I’m sharing the Hope Metric here on Delphi - daily scores, setups, and breakdowns. It’s something I’ve been building personally and refining over time, so it’s not publicly available yet (soon hopefully)
Compared to Fear & Greed Index, HM blends much more macro signals, flows, policy risk, and crypto-native stuff to get a better read on how the market’s really positioned. TheTLDR is I take in more unique metrics that measures "hope" and found it much more tactical from a trading perspective.
for e.g. the HM takes into consideration Geo-politics as one of our core signals to measure how hopeful folks are in terms of BTC capital flow. This will include stuff like Russia-Ukraine peace deals, China-Taiwan escalations etc, stuff that will have a material impact on global trade which will then impact BTC capital flow.
Can you please provided a more detailed explanation of the relationships of the variables in the chart?
Great question - I’ll be diving deeper into how these components relate in the upcoming breakdown, but here’s a high-level explanation for now:
HM Score reflects a composite view of sentiment, scored from 0 to 100. It aggregates macro, institutional, policy, and crypto-native inputs into a single reading that captures how the market is positioned emotionally.
BTC Price is plotted alongside to show how market price action is reacting to (or ignoring) changes in sentiment.
R² line shows the 7-day rolling correlation between the HM Score and BTC price. When R² is high (closer to 1), sentiment and price are moving in sync. When it drops (especially below 0.3), it signals a potential divergence - either price is moving without sentiment backing it, or sentiment is shifting before price.
The core idea is to catch breakdowns in this alignment.
For example: when sentiment improves (rising HM) but R² is falling and price lags - that often flags a market mispricing or early-stage inflection. More to come soon in the full deep dive. Appreciate you engaging with it.