Expect the unexpected.
Blur surprised many with the announcement of a new L2 called Blast. While they are separate entities, Pacman (Blur founder) leads both organisations. The fate of BLUR and BLAST are intertwined like star-crossed lovers.
Overall, I think this is positive for BLUR in the short-mid term, with potential for asymmetric upside if the bullish scenario plays out
BLUR = all the fundamentals as per our previous report + future new product revenue + L2 upside (reasonably popular L2s valued between $100M – $1.5B today)
Some of my personal notes:
BLAST
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L2 (OP) with real world yield: via Lido + Maker + Gas fees back to devs
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$20M raised.
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Purpose: Blur, perps + other new products
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Testnet in Jan, Airdrop in May
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50% of community rewards to early access, 50% to devs.
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Devs go where incentives are. And if there are good incentives (airdrop, gas fees) to build there, they will go
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How to participate:
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Points earned for bridging ETH and earning yield
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Invite your squad, earn 16% of the points and 8% of their next level invitee points (almost like a pyramid scheme)
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Luck, Spins as gamification mechanisms
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Could attract a good number of farmers:
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Earn staking yield that you would earn on Lido anyway + call option on a new L2 (probably worth something)
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Spinning + Luck feature + MLM scheme keeps game interesting for a while
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Downside is ETH locked till Feb and smart contract/bridge risk
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8000 ETH ($16M) locked on Blast bridge in <24 hours (https://etherscan.io/address/0x5f6ae08b8aeb7078cf2f96afb089d7c9f51da47d)
BLUR
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Another $40M raised
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Perps product in development. New products will be built on Blast
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S3 program:
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50% of S3 incentives for BLUR holders. Stake BLUR to earn points. Higher multipliers the longer you stake. ~5x multiplier if you hold the whole way. Multipliers drop if you withdraw
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50% for liquidity providers on Blur & Blend
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Bullish unlock so far, price is up 15% after S2 tokens were distributed today
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225M BLUR is currently staked (~20% of circulating)
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Circulating market cap remains the same. rewards came from the community treasury
Bullish scenario for BLUR
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Bull market in mid 2024: NFTs revive, crypto markets are vibrant
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NFT volumes up. NFT perps product launch. Blur fee switch on, generating significant revenue
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Blast L2 catches wind and attract dev interest with incentives
Bearish scenario for BLUR
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L2 gets no adoption (low end of L2 valuation)
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Blur team split focus, loses market share on NFT volumes and fumbles L2.