We will be hosting a live stream at 4:15pm EST today (Wed, April 2nd), with live coverage on the developing tariff situation, “liberation day”, and the impact on our market outlook going forward.

Pro members are invited to ask questions and comment in the Delphi Pro Telegram group throughout the session for Jason to discuss and answer live on the stream.

Stream summary

Press Conference Analysis

I monitored Trump’s press conference announcing reciprocal tariffs
Trump labeled April 2, 2025 as “Liberation Day” – declaring it the day of American industry rebirth
The administration announced reciprocal tariffs against nations with existing tariffs on US goods
Notable tariff announcement: 25% tariff on all foreign-made automobiles starting at midnight
Trump presented a chart showing comparative tariff rates, with the US implementing rates at approximately half of what other nations charge

Market Reaction

Markets initially opened strong but turned negative during the press conference
S&P 500 went from +0.5% to -1% in a 5-10 minute period
Bitcoin initially rallied leading into the announcement but was rejected at resistance
I’d describe the price action as similar to FOMC announcements – initial move in one direction followed by a counter-move

Global Responses

Mixed international reactions: some nations (Mexico, Israel, Canada) indicated willingness to eliminate tariffs on US goods
Other nations (China, Japan, South Korea) united against US tariffs and pledged supply chain cooperation
The varied responses create more uncertainty in markets despite the supposed clarity of the announcement

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin rejected at the 200-day moving average, a key technical level
Currently trading below multiple volume-weighted average prices (VWAPs)
My analysis suggests sellers remain in control in the 88-90K range
Recent price action shows positioning-related moves with short covering followed by new positions at the highs

Forward Outlook

My base case remains “sideways and down” for markets over the next several months
I expect choppiness and potential further downside unless nations broadly reduce tariffs
For Bitcoin to turn bullish, it would need to break and hold above the 90-92K area
All timeframe indicators (weekly, 3-day, daily) need to align for a sustainable bullish trend
Equities showing similar technical patterns to Bitcoin, with crypto potentially front-running traditional markets

Tariff Tantrums - Market Update 4/9/2025