I’d like to preface this as my personal thesis on where I believe we currently are in the cycle. As we were consolidating back in April and everyone was calling for the end of the cycle, I wasn’t fully sold on the idea that we had topped out.
CT has a short memory, but the market never really forgets. Every cycle, without fail, there’s a point where people start calling for the invalidation of the 4-year cycle – only to be proven that once again, it remains intact. Whether it’s the “supercycle”, “institutional decorrelation”, or macro decoupling, there’s always a narrative that tries to break the standard pattern we’ve been following for years. And yet, here we are again – Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, altcoins showing signs of strength, and consensus capitulating that it was always a 4-year cycle.
Much of CT had written off the 4-year cycle thesis multiple times over the last year or so. However, what we’re seeing now in 2025 closely resembles the late-stage dynamics of the 2017 run: a top-heavy market increasingly driven by expanding risk-on behavior with alts following BTCs recent ATH momentum.
A Familiar Setup
At this point it’s hard to dismiss t
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