Beware the Ides of March

MAR 04, 2021 • 5 Min Read

Kevin Kelly, CFA
Kevin Kelly, CFA

Bitcoin kicked off 2021 with its best start since 2013, nearly doubling in the first seven weeks of the year through February 21st (+98%). In fact, BTC was on pace for its best month since November 2013 through the first three weeks of February; its end-of-month selloff dragged on returns but bitcoin still put in its 5th consecutive calendar month of gains, the most since June 2019.

As we highlighted in a note just over a month ago – aptly titled “Bitcoin’s Seasonal Struggles” – bitcoin’s price tends to struggle between mid-February and late March; seemingly right on queue, BTC corrected ~21% from its recent high in the final week of February. While historical data is quite limited, BTC appears to be following a decently similar playbook, at least so far.

Price volatility for BTC also tends to pick up in March, albeit from already above-average levels compared to other c

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