Bitcoin Breakout Tease & Looming Market Risks

I’ve broken this Daily into two parts; the first is just thoughts on a few recent market developments while the latter looks at the short-term outlook for BTC and associated risks heading into the final months of 2020.

The Trouble With Data…

I’ve spent much of the last few years outlining the macro case for crypto to just about anyone willing to listen. It’s rather unsurprising then that, as we approach the final quarter of what will undoubtedly be a year none of us ever forget, I’m still here arguing the backdrop has never been more conducive for our industry to thrive.

However, lately I’ve felt almost more compelled to bring this to people’s attention if for no other reason than to help them hedge their own future well-being. It’s getting difficult to stand by and watch what’s happening to our country without feeling the urge to do something, especially when I hear politicians preach falsehoods about the “strength of the recovery” without so much as acknowledging how much work is left to be done.

I spend a lot of time looking at charts (like, a lot of time) and one of the biggest difficulties in assessing the state of the economy in real time is the inherent lag in many indicators. Take consumer and business loans, for example. In any debt-driven economy, the constant flow of cheap, accessible credit is paramount to keep the wheels of the economy turning. It’s only when credit starts to dry up (caused by too much excess or an exogenous shock like COVID) when people start scrambling for chairs before the music stops. Several offic