Crypto's Make or Break Moment

OCT 05, 2022 • 13 Min Read

Kevin Kelly, CFA + 2 others

DISCLOSURE: THE AUTHORS OF THIS REPORT HOLD POSITIONS IN BTC AND ETH. THE AUTHOR HAS NOT PURCHASED OR SOLD ANY TOKEN FOR WHICH THE AUTHOR HAS MATERIAL NON-PUBLIC INFORMATION DURING THE RESEARCH AND DRAFTING OF THIS REPORT. THESE STATEMENTS ARE INTENDED TO DISCLOSE ANY CONFLICT OF INTEREST AND SHOULD NOT BE MISCONSTRUED AS A RECOMMENDATION TO PURCHASE OR SELL ANY TOKEN OR TO USE ANY PROTOCOL. THE CONTENT IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND YOU SHOULD NOT MAKE INVESTMENT DECISIONS BASED SOLELY ON IT. THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.

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Introduction

Crypto markets have been attached at the hip to traditional risk assets for the better part of the last 12 months. For better or for worse, everything has been distilled down into one big macro trade. Equities appear to be on the verge of another major test, and so far, there has not been enough evidence of any real decoupling between crypto assets and traditional assets, which we wrote about recently. In order for us to have any strong conviction in the idea of a break in the crypto <> macro relationship, we would need to see more sustained evidence of divergences in markets, and that simply hasn’t materialized yet.

For example, the FOMC’s decision to hike rates another 75bps at the last FOMC meeting was largely expected. What was not expected was the Fed’s projected terminal rate. The updated Dot Plot implied a 4.6% fed funds rate by December 2023, with Powell reiterating the Fed’s h

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Kevin Kelly, CFA + 2 others