ETH Outperforms BTC, Update On Macro Outlook

📰 In Case You Missed It

• Tesla sells 75% of its Bitcoin holdings, adds $936M of cash to its balance sheet.
• Curve Finance plans to launch an over-collateralized stablecoin: crvUSD.
• Voyager rejects FTX/Alameda buyout offers, says it potentially “harms customers”.
• ETH 2.0 receives an updated deadline: 19th-Sept – date still tentative.

📊 ETH Outperforms BTC as Exchanges See Largest Daily Outflow Since 2021

• Since the beginning of July, the balance of ETH on CEXs has reduced from 21.7 million to 20.6 million, putting net outflows at approximately 1.1 million ETH. 
• On 7th-July, we saw the largest daily net outflow of ETH from exchanges since July-2021, totaling more than 600k ETH. An additional net outflow of 400k ETH took place on 14th-July.
• These large outflows have coincided with ETH’s price recovery. Not only has ETH bounced 80% from last month’s low, but it has also outperformed BTC by 35% in the past week. The ETH/BTC ratio currently sits just below 0.07, levels unseen since early May-2022.
• An updated deadline for the ETH Merge may have acted as a leading catalyst for the strong price performance, as investors gain more certainty around potential timelines. Although not finalized, 19th-Sept is now the tentative date for the Merge.
• Estimates indicate that daily issuance of ETH will drop by ~90% post Merge, from 13k to 1.6k ETH minted per day.
• For more on the recent ETH rally, Delphi members can read our latest Market Insights report here.

Important week ahead for TradFi:

⚡ Out of The Frying Pan, Not Out of The Fire

• The macro situation keeps getting more complex, and complexity often equates to uncertainty. Last week, the US CPI print came in even higher than expected, topping all economist forecasts.
• Risk assets have finally had a decent few weeks, rallying off of the June lows, notching some much-needed relief and reprieve from the relentless selling of the two months prior.

• Going forward, there are two main high timeframe levels to keep an eye on. If Bitcoin breaks above the current price range of $20K-$24K, high time frame resistance is likely to come into play around the $28K-$30K region. If bitcoin breaks below the current range, we are likely looking at the $10K-$12K price range, with some possible front running in the $14K-$16K region.
• While BTC is currently struggling with the established range high, ETH has moved far beyond that point, in excess of 30%. At this rate, there are no shorter-term resistance levels in play as ETH finds itself in no-mans land, just shy of the higher timeframe resistance levels previously discussed.

• Inflation concerns have transitioned to growth fears as tighter conditions continue to weigh on markets.
• Economists have cut their forecasts for YE ‘22 GDP in half since the start of the year, according to data from Bloomberg. Despite last month’s blowout CPI print, inflation expectations continue to trend lower as well. Alarm bells are already ringing with an inverted yield curve too.
• This isn’t new – prior rate hike cycles tended to end with a flattening (and eventually inverted) curve as front-end yields track fed funds while longer duration yields reflect a weaker growth outlook.
• For more information on the market outlook, Delphi members can read the full Delphi Insights report here.

Notable Tweets

Global M2 Deviation vs. Crypto Market Cap

Ok, two more charts and some thoughts…this time on crypto….

Is the accepted narrative of the BTC Halving cycle what drives the BTC cycle (and all crypto) or is it the macro?

Im starting to think it’s all about the macro

This is global M2 YoY vs Crypto market cap #Bitcoin

— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) July 22, 2022

Institutional Loans in Crypto

1/ Institutional Loans in Crypto

Massive deleveraging has occurred recently due to the failure of many centralized lenders.

@CelsiusNetwork has a mere $98M of outstanding loans, @coinbase bonds trade at a 10%+ yield and leading market makers (MMs) have had trading cap reduced

— iWitty (@ianw888) July 22, 2022

How To Do Market Analysis

Market Analysis (for businesses or specific market types)

What I understood from reading this fine work ✅✅

— rakkitbay (@cremapucks) July 25, 2022