Football Fan Tokens Crater as the FIFA World Cup 2022 Begins
NOV 21, 2022 ā¢ 4 Min Read
š Welcome!
Uniswap has a new privacy policy which outlines the data they will collect from users. Elsewhere, the FTX hackerās on-chain moves are being closely monitored as they dump ETH for renBTC.
As the FIFA World Cup 2022 kicks off, we re-examine the performance of football fan tokens while our Research team looks at some macro conditions highlighted in our latest monthly chartbook.
This is theĀ Delphi Daily. Letās dive in.
šØ In Case You Missed It
- The FTX hacker dumps 50K ETH for renBTC, an ERC-20 version of BTC. The hacker remains 27th largest ETH holder.
- Uniswapās new privacy policy states that they will collect public on-chain data as well as limited off-chain data like device type and browser version.
- An independent examiner says Celsius failed to set up sufficient accounting and operational controls for handling customer funds.
- JP Morganās crypto wallet is now officially a registered trademark in the US.
- FTX owes its 50 biggest creditors nearly $3.1B.
š Football Fan Tokens Crater as the FIFA World Cup 2022 Begins
- In financial markets, big events often present big opportunities for traders. In anticipation, some market participants begin positioning a few weeks before the actual event in order to take profits when the event occurs.
- The FIFA World Cup 2022 was no exception, as fan tokens issued by football teams experienced hefty corrections just two days before the event began.
- Since Nov. 18, fan tokens for the national teams of Argentina (ARG: -17%), Portugal (POR: -17%), Brazil (BFT: -21%), Spain (SNFT: -31%), and Peru (FPFT: -26%) have underperformed BTC (-4%) and ETH (-7%).
- Tokens associated with platforms that help football teams issue fan tokens such as Socios (CHZ: -21%) and Bitci (BITCI: -20%) are also down during the same period.
- Additionally, FIFAās official blockchain partner Algorand (ALGO: -9%) and an index of fan tokens of football clubs (FOOTBALL: -21%) have also underperformed during the same period.
ā” Monthly Chartbook ā Inflation Cooperates, But Is It Enough?
- Has anything changed on the macro front given the macro-driven bear market? This month, the answer isā¦ maybe a bit. At the FOMC meeting on Nov. 1st-2nd, the Fed remained hawkish.
- Powell reaffirmed his stance once again, stating the committeeās desire to curb inflation at seemingly all cost. At the press conference, Powell received many tough questions around the future trajectory of interest rate hikes.
- Powell was non-committal, while acknowledging that the pace of hikes will have to come down at some point, although when is still to be determined.
- Markets have since repriced the December FOMC meeting, placing an ~80% probability of a 50 bps rate hike with ~20% probability of 75 bps. This is in stark contrast to the probabilities noted just a few weeks prior.
- Last month, we noted that the high-time frame market structure for BTC remained largely unchanged (pre-FTX collapse), with an important caveat.
- We highlighted the loss of momentum within the BTC market as each subsequent bounce off of the $18k-$19k support level grew weaker and weaker.
- It remained clear to us at the time that āThe path of least resistance is likely further downside until macroeconomic clarity returns. Should we lose the June lows, BTC is likely to move towards its higher-time frame market structure levels. These are roughly $14k-$16k (notĀ much support),Ā and $9k-$13k (high-time frame volume support).ā
- Unfortunately, this situation has played out exactly, although from a self-inflicted wound within the crypto industry as FTXās insolvency was revealed. BTC crashed through the June lows before bouncing at ~$15.5k.
- As noted, this area does not have much structural support, and in the face of further contagion and uncertainty, we remain cautious as we watch the $9k-13k level.
- For more on traditional and crypto market outlook, Delphi members can read our Delphi Pro report here.
š£Ā Notable Tweets
Thoughts on Robust Prediction Markets
Why donāt robust prediction markets for exploits exist? E.g. will protocol X suffer a hack by Y date
Gives hackers a way to exploit a protocol, trigger the event, return the money, and collect the PM pay-out w/o negative consequences of stealing user funds and committing a crime
Tracking the FTX Hacker On-Chain
1/ I have seen a ton of misinformation being spread on Twitter and in the news about the FTX event so let me debunk the three most common things Iāve seen
āBahamian officials are behind the FTX hackā
āExchanges know who the hacker isā
āFTX hacker is trading meme coinsā-ZachXBT (@zachxbt)
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