With the bitcoin halving top of mind this week, we wanted to share a brief note summarizing our current views on the short and longer-term outlook for BTC.
Our research team has done a ton of work on many of the topics discussed below, and we’ve included plenty of links to prior deep dive reports and Alpha Feed posts for those seeking more in-depth context.
The halving is upon us. And tomorrow, Bitcoin’s issuance will fall by 50% for the fourth time ever.
As Satoshi’s 15-year-old code instructs, the block reward will decline from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC — equivalent to a daily reduction of ~450 BTC. This will drive Bitcoin’s annualized inflation rate down from roughly 1.7% to 0.85%.
Although every halving has a diminishing impact on Bitcoin’s price, tomorrow will still decrease issuance and potential sell pressure
Glassnode
At a $65K/BTC price, the halving will reduce BTC issuance by $29 million per day, $889 million per week and $11 billion per year. For reference, $11B is about a third of the Bitcoin ETFs’ AUM.
We should note these figures assume that every bitcoin emitted is sold onto the open market. In reality, most miners do not sell all their corn, so the impact will likely be more muted than the
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