Goodbye Q1, You Won't Be Missed

Crypto Market Update

The crypto market has been showing signs of strength as we close the books on a volatile Q1. For context, BTC still remains within its $30K trading range, oscillating between $32K-$62K. As Q1 comes to a close, let’s revisit the weekly market structure for Bitcoin to see where we find ourselves.

• BTC is ending the quarter in a much better place than where it started the month. Quarterly closes are important because they’re often scrutinized by many types of market participants. A strong monthly or quarterly close can inform a bullish bias for traders and investors with longer time horizons. Algorithmic traders can also use quarterly (or monthly or weekly) closes as triggers for certain trend or momentum-based strategies.

• Despite the strong end to Q1, BTC’s price appears to be heading into some resistance at the time of writing. Notably, BTC also finds itself at the midpoint of the weekly market structure.

• In addition, BTC also finds itself above the high volume node boundary located around $42-$44K. Keep an eye on this area should price revisit it in the coming days. As of now, the weekly market structure looks prime for a trend shift, barring any drastic turn in market sentiment.

Speaking of Trends…

• Long-time readers will be familiar with the Guppy Analysis, as it has been one of our favored trend-following tools over the last 2 BTC cycles. In short, using the Guppy Multiple Moving Average has kept participants away from false bottoms while BTC has been in its four month downtrend.

• In the last 7 days, the GMMA has finally confirmed a full bullish crossover between the short-term MA grouping (blue) and the long-term MA grouping (red). This is the first time that we have seen a confirmed bullish crossover with this tool since the November 2021 ATH. The previous occurrences of crossover signal triggered were the 2021 summer lows, and the April 2021 market high, with both leading to multi-month trend reversals.

• If BTC begins to lose momentum after this rally, look for the long-te