Market Note: SOL Surges and Stalls

Introduction

Many had written off Solana as yet another hyped L1 narrative play from this cycle. However, the most recent rally has left many market participants sidelined and speechless. The “up only” regime on a billion-dollar asset has inspired renewed attention and, with it, plenty of opportunities.

Prior to November 2022, Solana was largely viewed as a “Sam” coin, a token that was closely associated with the FTX/Alameda brand. So, it stands to reason that when these entities went bust, SOL fell by over 60% within a week. The sizable sell-off was not limited to SOL, as all associated assets also suffered heavy drawdowns. But SOL, among other FTX-associated assets, was among the worst hit in terms of price action.

The transition from negligible levels of interest to being the center of attention warrants a detailed analysis of SOL. Without further ado, let’s dive into it.

A Top-Down View

The Monthly View

SOL failed to hit the monthly (meme) support area between $3-$5. This region was etched in every market participant’s memory thanks to the infamous SBF tweet, thus acting as a psychological attention zone and potential support area for SOL upon a retest. Every trader was salivating at the opportunity to bid at this level. As we know, when everyone eyes a specific level of support or resistance, the market either front-runs or overreacts. In the case of SOL, buyers began stepping in closer to $8 rather than $3-$5.

SOL doesn’t have enough price history for its monthly chart to be of significant use. That said, SOL is approaching the first trouble area, which spans from roughly $31-$43. If SOL is able to overcome this region, the next area spans from $80-$99, coinciding