NFT Winter, BTC Decoupling, & Crypto Raiders

Chart of The Day: NFT Winter is Here

• NFTs saw an impressive gain in volume and Google search interest at the end of December through early February. OpenSea daily volumes peaked at $250M. More recently, however, that’s fallen to just around $70M, representing a 72% drop in daily volume from its peak.
• Global “NFT” searches have seen an even steeper drop-off, falling to early-Nov levels. The initial run-up of this NFT cycle was catalyzed by branding and marketing with partnerships from Adidas with BAYC, Nike acquiring RTFKT, as well as celebrity purchases and features in music videos. The current state of NFTs seems stale as the promotions have slowed significantly.
• Although it seems gloomy, we noted in our recent NFT Insights that the number of unique buying wallets is still relatively high. This is a proxy for the number of people actively involved in NFTs, so if it starts to wane, we’ll know conditions are starting to sour.

Markets Whipsaw Amid Growing Instability

[Excerpt from our Mar. 4 Market Insights]

• A mainstay analysis for determining asset strength is comparing performance following a pivotal event.
• Translating this to the current situation, when plotting BTC against traditional markets, we see tremendous relative strength in BTC. Since the start of Russia’s baseless invasion, BTC has rallied 14.5%, while gold is up 4.3%. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices have rallied 3.1% and 2.1%, respectively.
• So what has caused such drastic outperformance? One thing you will note in the below chart is the largest portion of the rally actually occurred just prior to month-end, just as the news of financial sanctions against the Bank of Russia broke.
• The way BTC reacted during this period in time is certainly noteworthy. Given this week’s developments and what’s transpired with protests in Canada, BTC is in a position to offer real utility to those looking for an outlet from, or those who have been excluded from, their current financial system.
• We believe BTC’s rally was also driven by those trying to front-run potential demand as well. There’s still a lot of uncertainty as to how this global conflict will play out.

Policymakers’ Agendas

• The economic fallout from sanctions with Russia is rippling through many countries, including developed nations. The surge in oil prices – which just today briefly touched their highest levels since the week after Lehman Brothers collapsed – is adding more fuel to growing inflation concerns, and we’re getting to the point where rising energy costs (and importantly, the expectations for costs to rise further) are going to start having a tangible impact on consumers, who are already being squeezed by higher consumer prices.
• For more, Delphi members can read the full Market Insights analysis here.

A Walkthrough of Crypto Raiders

[Excerpt from Mar 5. Gaming Insights]

• Crypto Raiders is a play-and-earn, web-based RPG that centers around playable Raider NFTs. The core gameplay loop consists of leveling up characters, defeating mobs in dungeons, and finding epic loot. Think: Diablo, Final Fantasy, or World of Warcraft.

Dos and Don’ts

• [1] DO buy characters at the floor price.
• There is only a minor functional difference between characters. Characters from earlier generations have a slightly higher earnings rate in $AURUM (when $AURUM emissions begin), and have a slightly lower recruit cost (which is how new Raider NFTs enter into the economy). Otherwise, they are functionally similar and your correspondent suggests that you purchase them at floor.
• You may want to accelerate your process by buying higher-level characters, or more geared characters. Do note that you will likely be paying a premium, which some time-poor and cash-rich players are happy to pay. This Raider, for example, was sold for 17.95 ETH to mevcollector, after having collected a limited-edition Christmas cosmetic (looks rare). This is also a way for cash-poor and time-rich players to earn: gear up characters and sell them on the market.

• [2] DON’T buy expensive characters [characters with gear] or rare characters (with caveats).
• Unless you are cash rich and time-poor, it’s almost always better to run your own characters. Alternately, if you can’t wait to head straight to the tournament gameplay (elder-game), then you can purchase a geared-out Raider at a premium.
• Additionally, the races and characters are (currently) purely cosmetic — a Skeleton has no benefit beyond looking really cool. Therefore, the rarity of the race trait has no direct impact in-game.
• As mentioned earlier, there are mild economic benefits that accrue to earlier generation Raiders. But overall, we’d recommend starting with the floor Raiders unless you’re a die-hard collector.
• [3] DO use the accounts / guilds feature to help scale out your gameplay.
• Crypto Raiders has implemented a feature where you can link an account with a wallet address, and the account won’t have access to your wallet. This means that a player can run your account for you without ever having access to your private keys — meaning that your Raiders and AURUM are safu.
• For more, Delphi members can read our latest Gaming Insights.

Notable Tweets

Andre and Anton Leaving Crypto

Andre and I have decided that we are closing the chapter of contibuting to the defi/crypto space.
There are around ~25 apps and services that we are terminating on 03 April 2022.
1/3

— Anton Nell (@AntonNellCrypto) March 6, 2022

EVMOS Halts on Failed Upgrade

Network upgrade has unfortunately failed. The chain is halted and is stopped for the next 24-48 hours while the team and validators reconvene and decide next steps. No transactions will be processed in the meantime.

We are gathering all the information available.

— Evmos (@EvmosOrg) March 7, 2022

FTX Now Supports Native Terra UST

FTX now supports native Terra UST!
@terra_money
#Terra $UST

— FTX (@FTX_Official) March 6, 2022