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Range-Bound Bitcoin, Opportunity or Bull Trap? (July ’21 Outlook)

Jul 14, 2021 · 13 min read

By Kevin Kelly, CFA, and Jeremy Ong

Technicals & Trends

In the short run, BTC could very well trade in a range, or even slide if we see another bout of selling pressure. Just about everyone we talk to is *not so* secretly hoping for another leg lower so they can accumulate, which leads us to believe any sell-off below the mid-to-high $20k range is likely to be somewhat short-lived.

Bitcoin is still trying to fight gravity and the morbid consequences of confirming an extensive head and shoulders pattern, which, as we’ve noted, would imply another major leg lower. We continue to monitor $30k as the key level to watch in the coming days and weeks.

Interestingly enough, BTC broke below its H&S neckline intraday but price didn’t break down as expected. With sentiment largely still fearful, a bottom could be close if bitcoin continues to defend the ~$30k level; the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has been below 30 every day but two since mid-May.

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