The Delphi Chartbook - September 2021

In this edition of the Delphi Chartbook, we cover crypto markets, DeFi, L1s & L2s, and important macro data points. Given the past month has been grueling for crypto investors – and mounting macro concerns threaten stability in global financial markets – this edition predominantly focuses on the state of crypto market structure and important updates from the macro world.

Crypto Markets

September was a forgettable month for crypto investors, with poor price action across the market. Bitcoin followed its usual September playbook, which gives some reassurance to those who’ve nervously watched BTC flirt with $40k support in recent weeks. While we remain structurally bullish on the entire crypto market, we highlighted the market’s tendency to disappoint this month in our market note titled “September Showers Bring Fall Gains”.

The rest of the crypto market also experienced a difficult September with some major names losing 15-20% over the month. ETHBTC appears positioned for a significant move after consolidating over the last several weeks; Q4 seasonality tends to favor the crypto market, which would imply ETH outperformance. Downside risk is still material at these levels but the fundamental outlook is as strong as ever.

ETHUSD is trying to find support at its 38 fib retracement level (~$2,775) amid its recent price weakness and stalling momentum.

BTC derivatives saw a sizeable open interest wipeout, with close to 25% of open interest at the start of September being erased by month end.

ETH saw a deeper deleveraging, with a near 40% contraction in derivatives open interest. While this is an obvious sign of poor sentiment, it also signals that a lo