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The Policymaker Conundrum (Oct. ’21 Chartbook, Part II)

Nov 8, 2021 · 10 min read

By Kevin Kelly, CFA, and Ashwath Balakrishnan

Below is the second part of Delphi’s October Chartbook focused on important macro developments our team is tracking.

The Forest vs. The Trees

There’s a ton of interest and debate over whether we’re returning to a reflationary environment or one plagued by stagflation. How fast will the Fed taper asset purchases after its announcement this week? And more importantly, when will they decide to hike rates and how quickly will we flip from a dovish regime to a more hawkish one?

These are the types of questions that are top of mind for every investor right now, and I understand why. We’re finally starting to see a real shift in policy after 18 months of “money printer go brrr” memes, and that’s significant, at least in the short run. But we mustn’t lose sight of the bigger picture; we can’t lose sight of the forest for the trees.

The key thesis that underpins our big picture outlo

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