Divergence Deepens – BTC Chart Says Pullback, HM Says Something Else.
R² has been all over the place post-April 17:
🔼 Climbs above 0.6
🔽 Collapses below 0.3 (Red Xs)
🔼 Climbs again
🔽 And today – another breakdown, putting in the 2nd Red X
This behavior suggests clear emotional misalignment between price and sentiment. And the d
...This is a follow-up AF to The Cost of Convenience. Call it a rant, if you want. More than anything, it’s a warning to myself, made public.
We might be experiencing a comfortable extinction of human agency. We might not even notice until there’s nothing left to decide for ourselves, as it presents itself as the most silent threat of a
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Let’s hope I don’t jinx this.
As long as BTC holds onto its current gains and closes positive today, we will have witnessed a full business week (Monday-Friday) of positive daily returns (red bars in the figure below).
That’s a fairly rare occurrence, only happening 13 times dating back to 2013. Using Friday as the reference date for the
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I’ve been thinking a lot about how Bitcoin behaves across macro regimes, and I keep coming back to one core view:
👉 BTC is the cleanest, most reflexive asset for tracking liquidity in the system.
It doesn’t care about earnings, geopolitics, or narratives. When capital starts flowing, it
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First of all, huge shoutout to RedPhone who should be credited with most of the following alpha: https://x.com/redphonecrypto
What is OYL and Alkanes?
OYL is a Bitcoin focused stack whose wallet, infrastructure, and upcoming AMM enable fully permission-less trading and tokenization on Bitcoin Layer 1. Alkanes is the name of the meta
