TLDR

The BTC Game Theory model flipped into a fresh Cooperation regime on March 31. By Day 2, CPS had already cleared the 0.57 durability baseline, something that typically takes weeks and has never happened this early across 34 episodes. As of Day 8, CPS is 0.7411 and accelerating. Cooperation inputs are 3/3 while 2 of 3 defection signals remain active, meaning the cooperation side is dominant but the model is not reading all-clear. That context matters: this Cooperation regime is forming under pressure and not in a vacuum.

Most C regimes that are going to fail do so early. The ones that survive the initial window tend to run. Mean forward return by Day 60 is roughly +17%. We’re still in the fragile period, but the speed at which this regime reached durability suggests it belongs to the latter group, not the former. If it holds, the asymmetry from here gets interesting. If it doesn’t… we’ll know soon enough.

Framework Context: The BTC Game Theory model classifies market regimes as Cooperation (C) or Defection (D) based on a composite of on-chain patience signals, positioning behavior, and volatility structure. The Compos