Regime Duration, Compression and the Statistics of Extended Cooperation

Bitcoin moves through repeatable regime states shaped by volatility, liquidity, and participant behavior. From a game theory perspective, Cooperation is less about direction, but rather it is more about what the market is setting up. These phases allow leverage to reset, positioning to build quietly and ranges to compress. Their significance lies less in the immediate price action and more in what tends to follow.

The critical variable is duration. Short Cooperation regimes tend to fail quickly and resolve into renewed volatility. Extended Cooperation regimes behave differently, frequently preceding large, asymmetric repricings once compression breaks.

To determine where the current regime sits on that spectrum, I analyzed the historical distribution of my model’s Cooperation regime lengths across BTC cycles since 2020. The results reveal a highly asymmetric structure that helps distinguish fragile Cooperation from structural Cooperation an