TLDR
3 months ago, I published “Bitcoin vs Gold: Positioning for the Next Relative Cycle” with a simple thesis: the BTC/Gold ratio was at the 2nd deepest drawdown in the history of the 1W 9/21 EMA framework and we were statistically near the floor.
That call is tracking. The ratio has recovered roughly +46% from its February lows. Gold has corrected -18% from its $5,589 ATH. BTC has ground from the mid-$60Ks back to ~$80K. And the 1W 9/21 EMA green crossover (the primary confirmation signal) is now projected for the first week of June. The historical upside following green crosses after the deepest red crosses: +148%, +641%, +148%.
However, the macro backdrop has shifted: inflation at 3.8%, rate cuts dead, an active war with Iran and Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair on May 13th. The setup into H2 is more complicated than it was in February. But the direction has not changed.
Below I revisit the original BTC/Gold ratio call, walk through how the gold and macro calls from our Year Ahead Markets 2026 report have played out, and update the framework for H2.
The Ratio: Recovery in Progress
When I wrote the original AF in late February, the BTC/Gold ratio was sitting around 12.5-13, deep in the historical extreme zone. BTC was trading in the mid-$60Ks and gold was at $5,100 after its parabolic move.
Today the ratio sits at roughly 17.6. That is +46% off the lows, driven by both sides of the equation moving in the direction I outlined.
The recovery so far has been entirely Scenario 1 driven. BTC has not ripped and Gold has corrected. This was the path I called “probably the most underappreciated” in the original piece.
Nobody is talking about BTC outperforming gold through gold weakness, but that is precisely what has happened since mid-February.
The drawdown from the ratio’s October 2025 peak has improved from roughly -60% to approximately -46%. Still deep by historical standards, but no longer at the extreme. We have moved from the 2nd deepest drawdown in history to somewhere in the middle of the range.
The scorecard above puts it in context. Of the 8 prior downside crosses, only the 2018 bear (-63%) and the 2022 bear (-69%) produced deeper declines than our February trough. The current -46% reading has us back near the historical median of -43%. That is meaningful progress from three months ago when we were at the statistical extreme.
The 9/21 EMA convergence I flagged as the primary confirmation signal has not happened yet as the EMAs a
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