Could BLUR Outperform When Narratives Rotate Back to NFTs?

Presently, NFTs are in the midst of a bear market. Participants are depressed, and 99% of collections are down at least 50% from their all-time high. Trading volumes and user counts have diminished to yearly lows. “It’s all over” sentiments are running rampant among NFT collectors, and even NFT perps traders are net short across all supported collections.

Despite this, the majority of BLUR airdrop recipients seemed to be holding on to their tokens.

Currently, 100% of the 360M airdropped BLUR tokens have been claimed from a total of 124.6K wallets. Interestingly, 58.4% of airdrop recipients held onto their BLUR tokens, while 35.2% sold the entire airdrop. As such, 210M of the 360M airdropped tokens have not been moved at all since February 14 due to the high conviction of these airdropped wallets.

Do these wallets know more than we do?

On August 14, six months after BLUR’s TGE, the long-awaited Blur marketplace fee-switch governance proposal will finally be active, which may potentially provide fee-sharing utility for BLUR token holders.

However, BLUR’s inflation for the first year remains high, as the initial circulating supply will increase by 3.6x from 360M to 1.3B by the end of the year. Also, 300M tokens have been allocated towards Airdrop Season 2, which will see another 10% of the total supply face significant selling pressure from airdrop farmers. All these indicators point towards significant selling pressure during the first year of BLUR’s existence.

While much is still unclear, Blur’s low-floating supply continues to be hammered, and Blur’s fundamentals remain strong. Both the marketplace and lending products continue to dominate the NFT space, even in a bear market. Should the fee switch be activated, it could act as a potential catalyst for BLUR, and the current market might not be accurately pricing its potential.

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Do you know what the average amount of BLUR tokens dropped to wallets was? My thinking here being that smaller airdrops are more likely to be held than larger ones.

That's a good question! From what I see, yes, smaller airdrops (0.5-1000 BLUR tokens) all did no action so far. But what I find interesting is within the top 100 airdrop recipients, more than 60% did no action as well, including the largest airdrop recipient who received 15.9M BLUR tokens.

Man, that person has some diamond hands as you say!

Do you have some numbers what the fee switch would equal to in $-terms?

Good question! I'm actually working on a BLUR token report right now and will explore what that would look like. But it really depends on how much volume the marketplace is doing and also what the actual take rate is (0.5% min 2.5% max) and how that is split between marketplace and token holders