Macro Signal Monday sets the tone for BTC capital flows at the start of the week. Follow along each Monday for the full Hope Metric signal breakdown and forward-looking capital flow context for BTC.
TLDR
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Hope Metric Score: 50.2 (Neutral)
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BTC ETF inflows slowed towards end of month, but May closed with $5.23B in net ETF inflows
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Institutional BTC buying remains active (Reitar, Strategy, Metaplanet, GameStop)
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Macro tone turning cautious: VIX, yields, and gold are all up
- Fed RRP usage spiked at month-end, mirroring March
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BTC-R² divergence tightening, but will need to remain cautious
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Outlook: Market is still in consolidation unless sentiment and flows re-accelerate together
The Round Up
Markets begin June with a defensive tone. The VIX rose nearly 2% to 18.93, 10-year yields remain elevated at 4.46% and Gold rallied over 3% – all signs of rising caution across risk assets. Fed officials, including Logan and Waller reiterated a message of patience even as ISM manufacturing data softened further. The ECB is expected to cut rates later this week, adding to the global easing narrative.
There was no ETF flow data for June 1 due to standard weekend lag, but institutional BTC activity remained elevated last week:
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Strategy added $75 million in BTC
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Metaplane